T
TOO "SAMOTSVETY I K"
We are a group of forecasters with a great track record working on applying forecasting to impactful questions. We hope to improve the forecasting ecosystem.
Country/Area ：Kazakhstan
Company Email ：info@samotsvety.org
Company website ：*****
Web Summary
Q1: What is the name of the company mentioned in the text?
A1: The company's name is Samotsvety I K.
Q2: What type of industry or field does Samotsvety I K operate in?
A2: Based on the provided content, it appears that Samotsvety I K operates in the field of forecasting and risk assessment, specifically focusing on existential risks such as AI, nuclear war, and other potential catastrophes.
Q3: What is the purpose of the company's forecasters?
A3: The company's forecasters aim to provide probabilities for different possible catastrophes that could lead to more than 1 million direct deaths in any one year, within the next 10 years. They also provide updates on their track record and discuss potential pitfalls in base rate-driven forecasting.
Q4: What is the definition of a micromort?
A4: A micromort is defined as a 1 in a million chance of death.
Q5: How did Samotsvety I K update its nuclear risk forecasts after recent events in Ukraine?
A5: After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety I K updated its nuclear risk forecasts to reflect a higher probability of nuclear war, with an estimated 16% chance that Russia would use any type of nuclear weapon in Ukraine within the next year.
Q6: What is the name of the report written by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland for Upstart?
A6: The report is titled "Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting" and was written in October 2021.
Q7: How did Samotsvety I K's forecasters respond to the report on power-seeking AI?
A7: According to the text, most forecasters gave >=5% to disempowerment by power-seeking AI by 2070, with many giving >=10%.
Q8: What is the purpose of the company's RSS feed and blog?
A8: The company's RSS feed and blog appear to be used for sharing updates on their forecasts, track record, and other relevant information related to existential risks and forecasting.
A1: The company's name is Samotsvety I K.
Q2: What type of industry or field does Samotsvety I K operate in?
A2: Based on the provided content, it appears that Samotsvety I K operates in the field of forecasting and risk assessment, specifically focusing on existential risks such as AI, nuclear war, and other potential catastrophes.
Q3: What is the purpose of the company's forecasters?
A3: The company's forecasters aim to provide probabilities for different possible catastrophes that could lead to more than 1 million direct deaths in any one year, within the next 10 years. They also provide updates on their track record and discuss potential pitfalls in base rate-driven forecasting.
Q4: What is the definition of a micromort?
A4: A micromort is defined as a 1 in a million chance of death.
Q5: How did Samotsvety I K update its nuclear risk forecasts after recent events in Ukraine?
A5: After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety I K updated its nuclear risk forecasts to reflect a higher probability of nuclear war, with an estimated 16% chance that Russia would use any type of nuclear weapon in Ukraine within the next year.
Q6: What is the name of the report written by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland for Upstart?
A6: The report is titled "Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting" and was written in October 2021.
Q7: How did Samotsvety I K's forecasters respond to the report on power-seeking AI?
A7: According to the text, most forecasters gave >=5% to disempowerment by power-seeking AI by 2070, with many giving >=10%.
Q8: What is the purpose of the company's RSS feed and blog?
A8: The company's RSS feed and blog appear to be used for sharing updates on their forecasts, track record, and other relevant information related to existential risks and forecasting.
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